Andy Stuckey and Ryan Maddux
The 2009 movie season wraps up Sunday with the 82nd Annual Academy Awards. Here's our take at predicting the six major categories.
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (Nine); Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air); Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart); Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air); Mo'Nique (Precious)
Ryan: For better or worse it seems like almost every race this year is already determined. In some instances that is problematic but with this category it's not. Mo'Nique is the clear favorite as she has won every major Oscar precursor. Not only will she win but she should win as she delivered the most noteworthy performance of the year.
Andy: The supporting actress category has some stellar performances this year from actors who will undoubtedly make future appearances at the Oscars. Kendrick clearly has a promising career ahead of her, and Gyllenhaal will likely be in consideration more years than she’s not. But Mo’Nique gave what very well may be the best acting performance of anyone in any category, and is the obvious choice for best supporting actress.
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon (Invictus); Woody Harrelson (The Messenger); Christopher Plummer (The Last Station); Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones); Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Andy: This category often has some of the most exciting and interesting performances, but this year’s crop is a little less out there than usual. The performances are worthy, but they don’t seem as edgy or exciting as in past years. The winner will almost definitely be Christoph Waltz from Inglourious Basterds. While not the flashiest performance on this list (or even in that movie), it is the most even and lasting.
Ryan: The trend of awarding performances that are villainous in nature will continue when Christoph Waltz walks away with the Oscar. Cinematically speaking playing a Nazi is about as generic as it gets but Waltz adds a new level of villainy to his performance and it was definitely one of the year's bests.
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side); Helen Mirren (The Last Station); Carey Mulligan (An Education); Gabourey Sidibe (Precious); Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Ryan: Carey Mulligan delivered the breakthrough performances of the year for a lead actress and she would get my vote here. But ultimately this is a two-woman race between Streep and Bullock. (They both won Golden Globes but Bullock won the SAG award). Ultimately I look for Bullock to Erin Brockovich her way to her first Oscar win.
Andy: The general consensus seems to be that Bullock will take home the trophy, but you can never count out how much the Academy loves Streep. Both Mulligan and Sidibe gave transcendent performances that are Oscar-worthy, but they are not the type of performances that generally get enough Oscar votes. Look for Bullock to be the big winner Sunday night.
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart); George Clooney (Up in the Air); Colin Firth (A Single Man); Morgan Freeman (Invictus); Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
Andy: You know a category is strong when Morgan Freeman’s dead-on portrayal of Nelson Mandella may be the weakest of the bunch. My favorite performance from this group is who I think will win, Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. He instantly embodied the character of Bad Blake, even though I went into the movie very skeptical of his ability to pull it off. Renner, Firth, and Clooney all gave turns that could have scored Oscar gold in other years, but this time it’s going to be Bridges.
Ryan: This is without a doubt the most loaded category. A strong case could be made for all the nominees. Bridges is the front runner and I look for him to win (and I don't have a problem with that) but I keep going back forth between Clooney and Firth. In the end, I would give the nod to Clooney for delivering a timeless performance.
Best Achievement in Directing: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker); James Cameron (Avatar); Lee Daniels (Precious); Jason Reitman (Up in the Air); Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Ryan: History will be made Sunday night as Kathryn Bigelow will become the first woman to win the Oscar for Best Director. But her win will be legit as she crafted a truly intense modern day war classic. Bigelow won the Director's Guild Award earlier this year (for Best Director of a Feature Film) and the Academy follows suit 90 percent of the time.
Andy: Many people point to this being the year the Academy has a chance to correct the ridiculous fact that no woman has ever won best director as the reason that Bigelow is the favorite. The reality of the situation is that The Hurt Locker is the best achievement in directing from 2009, so she deserves the award. The Iraq war has been the subject of some disappointing movies, but Bigelow is the first director to show that a powerful movie can be made about this timely subject matter.
Best Picture: Avatar; The Blind Side; District 9; An Education; The Hurt Locker; Inglourious Basterds; Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; A Serious Man; Up; Up in the Air
Andy: With the Academy choosing to offer 10 nominees this year, one would think this category would be wide open. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Up was the best movie I saw last year, but the Hurt Locker was the most important. I would love to see either of these films win, but all signs point to Avatar taking home the top prize. After having some time to reflect, I honestly feel that Avatar is the weakest film of the 10. But because it took movie spectacle to a new level (and cut huge checks for a whole lot of Hollywood), it will likely take home best picture.
Ryan: In my book Up would be the Best Picture winner but that's clearly not going to happen when looking at the history of the Academy Awards. Ultimately it's going to come down to the gritty realism of The Hurt Locker versus the cinematic wonder of Avatar. I would strongly prefer The Hurt Locker to win but I believe in the end Avatar will take home the big award on Sunday night.
That’s it for 2009; we’ll get back to the present tense next week as we start looking at movies filling the gap before the summer movie season begins.
